PPR Mock Draft Analysis

By Pasha Hashemzadeh

As Anthony nicely put it:

The number one rule in the fantasy football offseason is that there is NO OFFSEASON in fantasy football!

A writer for fantasyhaus, Anthony Knox, recently completed a 10-team PPR scoring mock draft that I am going to analyze. Anthony drafted from the first spot.

Round 1:

1.01: Le’Veon Bell – RB
1.02: Antonio Brown – WR
1.03: Julio Jones – WR
1.04: Odell Beckham Jr. – WR
1.05: DeAndre Hopkins – WR
1.06: Todd Gurley – RB
1.07: Jamaal Charles – RB
1.08: David Johnson – RB
1.09: Ezekiel Elliott – RB
1.10: Dez Bryant – RB

You can’t go wrong with either Bell or AB for the first pick, so Anthony made the right move here. Jamaal Charles, coming off his second ACL tear, is a bit of a reach here. Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware proved they could handle the running game without Charles, so they will surely be in the mix for carries as well. Expect Charles to be eased back in early on.

Round 2:

2.01: Rob Gronkowski – TE
2.02: A.J. Green – WR
2.03: Adrian Peterson – RB
2.04: Allen Robinson – WR
2.05: Lamar Miller – RB
2.06: Devonta Freeman – RB
2.07: Eddie Lacy – RB
2.08: Keenan Allen – WR
2.09: Mark Ingram – RB
2.10: Jordy Nelson – WR

Devonta Freeman in the mid-second is a reach, as he doesn’t figure to emulate his superb 2015 season. Talented second year man Tevin Coleman is in the rearview mirror, and expects to get touches this season. The o-line is a strength of the Falcons offense, so it’s not the worst pick in the world, though I would certainly pass at that spot. Jordy Nelson, despite coming off an ACL tear, is a surefire WR1. He was a steal at the end of the second, and reports this offseason have only been positive about his recovery.

Round 3:

3.01: Demaryius Thomas – WR
3.02: Mike Evans – WR
3.03: Julian Edelman – WR
3.04: Matt Forte – RB
3.05: Sammy Watkins – WR
3.06: Brandon Marshall – WR
3.07: LeSean McCoy – RB
3.08: Alshon Jeffery – WR
3.09: Thomas Rawls – RB
3.10: Carlos Hyde – RB

Demaryius Thomas, despite excellent talent, was a bit of a reach here for Anthony. There is too much uncertainty at the moment at the QB position in Denver, and the defense and running game figure to be heavily utilized this season. Watkins, Marshall, and Jeffery are WR1s and were all great picks this round.

Round 4:

4.01: Brandin Cooks – WR
4.02: Amari Cooper – WR
4.03: Doug Martin – RB
4.04: Jonathan Stewart – RB
4.05: T.Y. Hilton – WR
4.06: Jordan Reed – TE
4.07: Jarvis Landry – WR
4.08: Cam Newton – QB
4.09: Kelvin Benjamin – WR
4.10: Golden Tate – WR

Amari Cooper falling to the fourth is anomaly. This won’t happen come real draft time, and he was an absolute steal here. Drafting a QB in the fourth, despite Newton being in a tier alone with Rodgers atop the QB rankings, isn’t a great move given the depth at the position this year. Anthony made a great PPR pick here with Golden Tate, who figures to eat up most of Megatron’s targets this season.

Round 5:

5.01: Dion Lewis – RB
5.02: Gren Olsen – TE
5.03: C.J. Anderson – RB
5.04: Delanie Walker – TE
5.05: Jeremy Maclin – WR
5.06: Randall Cobb – WR
5.07: Eric Decker – WR
5.08: Doug Baldwin – WR
5.09: Donte Moncrief – WR
5.10: Russell Wilson – QB

Anthony with another good pick here in Dion Lewis. He was a PPR beast before going down with an ACL tear last year. Reports are that he has been running and cutting and should be all systems go come season time. He is on the RB1 radar and to grab him in the fifth is nuts! Randall Cobb should regain fantasy relevance and put up nice numbers while filling his WR2 role in GB. He was misfit as the top man last year, and with Jordy back he is a WR2 with upside. This was way too early for Moncrief. Luck figures to spread the ball around, and while he is the biggest WR target on the team, it’s simply too high of a risk to draft him at this spot as you would be likely starting him. He is currently a WR4.

Round 6:

6.01: Jeremy Hill – RB
6.02: Coby Fleener – TE
6.03: Tyler Eifert – TE
6.04: Emmanuel Sanders – WR
6.05: Aaron Rodgers – QB
6.06: Ryan Mathews – RB
6.07: Andrew Luck – QB
6.08: Latavius Murray – RB
6.09: Jay Ajayi – RB
6.10: DeVante Parker – WR

Cam went two rounds earlier than Rodgers, and they are neck and neck in our fantasyhaus rankings. This was a nice pick. Latavius Murray didn’t impress last year and is on our bust radar. Rookie RB DeAndre Washington was a nice pickup for the Raiders and could test Murray in camp and preseason for the starting gig. Anthony made a great pick here in the high upside DeVante Parker. He showed his talents late in the season last year and has been dazzling this offseason. He is one of our breakout players of the year.

Round 7:

7.01: DeMarco Murray – RB
7.02: DeSean Jackson – WR
7.03: Michael Floyd – WR
7.04: Jeremy Langford – RB
7.05: Larry Fitzgerald – WR
7.06: Travis Kelce – TE
7.07: Julius Thomas – TE
7.08: Ben Roethlisberger – QB
7.09: Matt Jones – RB
7.10: Michael Crabtree – WR

Tennessee will take an RB-heavy approach this year with DeMarco Murray leading the pack. This was a good pick and gives Anthony nice depth at the position. Julius Thomas has reportedly been unstoppable this offseason, and looks to build on a nice 2015 campaign in a growing Jaguars offense. Matt Jones doesn’t have a firm grasp on the starting gig given his fumbling issues, therefore he is a bit of a reach here.

Round 8:

8.01: Jordan Matthews – WR
8.02: John Brown – WR
8.03: Kevin White – WR
8.04: Corey Coleman – WR
8.05: Danny Woodhead – RB
8.06: Drew Brees – QB
8.07: Marvin Jones – WR
8.08: T.J. Yeldon – RB
8.09: Melvin Gordon – RB
8.10: Willie Snead – WR

John Brown could have a stellar year, and in round 8 brings no risk whatsoever. Great pick. The Chargers have an abysmal offensive line, making Woodhead a very questionable pick here. I understand it’s PPR, but the Chargers will want to utilize their former first round pick Melvin Gordon more this year, so between running behind a bad line and having limited snaps, Woodhead figures to have a low floor this season. I don’t like Anthony’s Snead pick, as Brees will surely spread the ball around and I like rookie WR Michael Thomas, who went a round later, to fill Colston’s shoes and eat up his targets.

Round 9:

9.01: Ladarius Green – TE
9.02: Stefon Diggs – WR
9.03: Laquon Treadwell – WR
9.04: Derrick Henry – RB
9.05: Sterling Shepard – WR
9.06: Gary Barnidge – TE
9.07: Carson Palmer – QB
9.08: Allen Hurns – WR
9.09: Tom Brady – QB
9.10: Michael Thomas – WR

Though currently shelved with minor injuries, Green and Barndige were nice picks here. Green has all the talent in the world to succeed in Pittsburgh’s offensive juggernaut. Allen Hurns had a nice 2015 campaign and was just signed to a big deal this offseason. He will be out to prove his worth and should see a good amount of targets with defenses zeroing in on fellow WR Allen Robinson. Brady was a steal here. Despite the four game suspension, he is an elite QB1 and you can nab a QB with a nice early schedule later in the draft to fill Brady’s void. While I like Michael Thomas, I believe this was a gamble here. He probably could have been had a couple rounds later.

Round 10:

10.01: Will Fuller – WR
10.02: Steve Smith Sr. – WR
10.03: Torrey Smith – WR
10.04: Stephen Gostkowski – K
10.05: Duke Johnson Jr. – RB
10.06: Justin Forsett – RB
10.07: Rashad Jennings – RB
10.08: Zach Ertz – TE
10.09: Matthew Stafford – QB
10.10: Theo Riddick – RB

Steve Smith Sr. is playing one last season and he has made it clear he’s in it to get to 1,000 receptions. That would require only 30+ receptions this season. He is old and coming off an Achilles tear, a horrible injury for a WR. I’d be fine if Smith went undrafted. Ertz picked it up late on in the season last year and has immense upside. Good pick here.

Round 11:

11.01: Tyler Lockett – WR
11.02: Frank Gore – RB
11.03: Ameer Abdullah – RB
11.04: Tony Romo – QB
11.05: Markus Wheaton – WR
11.06: Giovani Bernard – RB
11.07: Antonio Gates – TE
11.08: Breshad Perriman – WR
11.09: Mike Wallace – WR
11.10: Tavon Austin – WR

Lockett was a wonderful pick by Anthony. Russell Wilson is so very good, and makes his receivers so very good (i.e. Doug Baldwin last year). With a year of experience under his belt, Lockett looks to break out this year and having him in the 11th is little risk, high reward. Antonio Gates may be done, and he is another player I would feel fine with going undrafted.

Round 12:

12.01: Vincent Jackson – WR
12.02: Dorial Green-Beckham – WR
12.03: Travis Benjamin – WR
12.04: Andy Dalton – QB
12.05: Charles Sims – RB
12.06: Phillip Dorsett – RB
12.07: Anquan Boldin – WR
12.08: Seahawks D/ST
12.09: Josh Doctson – WR
12.10: Eli Manning – QB

Sims has already established a nice PPR floor despite being the number two man behind Doug Martin in the TB backfield. He can be utilized as a flex weekly and was a good PPR pick here in the 12th. I shy away from defenses until the last couple rounds, so I don’t like the Seahawks D/ST pick here. There’s too much value left to go defense this early. I don’t like Anthony’s pick of Eli. He’s simply too inconsistent despite the all-world WR Odell Beckham Jr. at his disposal.

Round 13:

13.01: Blake Bortles – QB
13.02: Mohamed Sanu – WR
13.03: Tyler Boyd – WR
13.04: Nelson Agholor – WR
13.05: Pierre Garcon – WR
13.06: Terrance Williams – WR
13.07: Stevie Johnson – WR
13.08: Kendall Wright – WR
13.09: Panthers D/ST
13.10: Texans D/ST

Anthony went QB-QB in rounds 12-13. This was a good move, as he can play matchups, something I customarily do. Bortles had a breakout season last year, albeit with much of his stats coming in garbage time. The Jags offense figures to be much better this year. Bortles has A-Rob, Hurns, and Julius Thomas to throw to, making him a very intriguing QB option this season. Terrance Williams, despite having the opportunity to be the WR2 in Dallas, is simply not good enough to draft at this spot. Maybe a few rounds later, but I do not like him in general and would steer clear. Even with Dez out with injury, T-Will hasn’t been able to establish himself consistently in the passing game.

Round 14:

14.01: Chris Ivory – RB
14.02: Jordan Howard – RB
14.03: Chiefs D/ST
14.04: James Starks – RB
14.05: Cardinals D/ST
14.06: Bengals D/ST
14.07: Broncos D/ST
14.08: LeGarrette Blount – RB
14.09: Kenneth Dixon – RB
14.10: Isaiah Crowell – RB

I love the Jordan Howard pick. Jeremy Langford had an abysmal rookie year with a very low YPC. Howard has the opportunity to grasp the starting gig this offseason, and at the very least be in the mix for carries come season time. Low risk/high reward pick here. Dixon looks good on tape, and with the Baltimore backfield unestablished yet figuring to be run-heavy, Dixon is a sneaky good pick here. Crowell is a good talent, but the Cleveland offense figures to be one of the worst in the league and they may have to abandon the run game early and often.

Round 15:

15.01: Jets D/ST
15.02: Packers D/ST
15.03: Tevin Coleman – RB
15.04: Bilal Powell – RB
15.05: Kenyan Drake – RB
15.06: DeAngelo Williams – RB
15.07: Rams D/ST
15.08: C.J. Prosise – RB
15.09: Darren Sproles – RB
15.10: Jerick McKinnon – RB

The Jets D/ST is grossly underrated in fantasy, and are a reason you can wait late to nab a defense. Great pick by Anthony here. He may have wanted to secure Bell’s handcuff in Williams, but oh well. Darren Sproles is old and figures to have a minimal role in Philly’s offense. He should go undrafted. McKinnon is a SPARQ-y talent that will thrive in the Minnesota offense should AP go down. AP owners should always handcuff with McKinnon.

Round 16:

16.01: Steven Hauschka – K
16.02: Adam Vinatieri – K
16.03: Dan Bailey – K
15.04: Mason Crosby – K
16.05: Josh Brown – K
16.06: Justin Tucker – K
16.07: Matt Prater – K
16.08: Graham Gano – K
16.09: Matt Bryant – K
16.10: Roberto Aguayo

The Baltimore offense could struggle this year, so despite how good Tucker is, you may want to look elsewhere at kicker. Aguayo is a sexy pick by Anthony, as he didn’t miss in college and looks to build on that success in his rookie year.

Picture courtesy of pennlive.com

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