Standard Mock Draft Analysis

By Anthony Knox
Follow me on Twitter @ff_knox

The number one rule in the fantasy football offseason is that there is NO OFFSEASON in fantasy football! If you’re like me, the day after your season ends is the day that you start prepping for the next season. It’s time to start reviewing what happened in the previous season and start thinking about how you would want to draft for the next season.

The easiest way to figure out how you want to draft is by doing mock drafts. I check any site I can to see when their mock draft lobbies open so I can start testing different strategies.

I’m not the only person who likes to get mock drafts in early. The founder of fantasyhaus, Pasha Hashemzadeh, recently completed a 10-team standard scoring mock draft that I would like to dissect for all of you. Pasha drafted from the fourth spot.

Round 1:

1.01: Le’Veon Bell – RB
1.02: Odell Beckham Jr. – WR
1.03: Antonio Brown – WR
1.04: Todd Gurley – RB
1.05: Julio Jones – WR
1.06: David Johnson – RB
1.07: Ezekiel Elliott – RB
1.08: DeAndre Hopkins – WR
1.09: Adrian Peterson – RB
1.10: A.J. Green – WR

To begin the draft with Todd Gurley in a standard league is absolutely great! I personally feel that it was the steal of the first round. I have Le’Veon Bell ranked as the #1 player in all formats entering the 2016 season, and I have Todd Gurley ranked #2 in all formats. I can’t argue with most of the picks in the first round, but I do believe that Ezekiel Elliott going 1.07 was a reach. Elliott is a 2nd round pick in my opinion. He’s never played a down in the NFL, so there is truly no way of knowing how well he will play behind the Dallas Cowboys offensive line. I think that either Dez Bryant or Rob Gronkowski should have been in the first round in his place.

Round 2:

2.01: Rob Gronkowski – TE
2.02: Lamar Miller – RB
2.03: Dez Bryant – WR
2.04: Jordy Nelson – WR
2.05: Amari Cooper – WR
2.06: Allen Robinson – WR
2.07: Alshon Jeffery – WR
2.08: Aaron Rodgers – QB
2.09: Sammy Watkins – WR
2.10: Jamaal Charles – RB

Lamar Miller at 2.02 is the biggest reach this round. I get it, he’s in a system that features the running back and gives them a lot of touches, but we don’t know if he can handle that amount of work yet. Plus, with Dez Bryant still on the board, who scores at least 10 touchdowns a season, he’s the smarter play in a standard league. I also believe that Amari Cooper was taken a little early. He’s not proven yet, he barely had 1,000 yards and he only scored 6 touchdowns. Alshon Jeffery could be worth the pick here, but that’s only if he plays 16 games. I personally would have taken Demaryius Thomas there, as I believe he will get back to his double-digit touchdown numbers in 2016. Drafting a QB in the 2nd round is not worth it, no matter who it is. Last year, Cam Newton and Carson Palmer were drafted in double-digit rounds, or not at all in some cases, and they were two of the best quarterbacks in 2016. My point? WAIT ON QUARTERBACK!

Round 3:

3.01: Demaryius Thomas – WR
3.02: Keenan Allen – WR
3.03: Julian Edelman – WR
3.04: Devonta Freeman – RB
3.05: Mike Evans – WR
3.06: Eddie Lacy – RB
3.07: Brandon Marsall – WR
3.08: C.J. Anderson – RB
3.09: Carlos Hyde – RB
3.10: TY Hilton – WR

Keenan Allen should not have been taken this early in a standard scoring draft. Allen makes his money in PPR leagues. Allen has 16 career touchdowns in his 3 seasons, so he needs to have the bonus of about 70 catches to make him worth drafting. Julian Edelman is the same deal as Allen, great in PPR, but doesn’t score a lot of touchdowns. Mike Evans and Brandon Marshall should have gone before both of them. I hate Devonta Freeman in 2016. I think that he will predominantly be used for his receiving abilities and that 1st and 2nd down belong to Tevin Coleman, in addition to goal line work. Unfortunately Pasha did not get Coleman later in the draft, which I think he will regret. I personally would have taken Eddie Lacy over Devonta Freeman if I were drafting a running back there.

Round 4:

4.01: Doug Martin – RB
4.02: Kelvin Benjamin – WR
4.03: Randall Cobb – WR
4.04: LeSean McCoy – RB
4.05: Cam Newton – QB
4.06: Jordan Reed – TE
4.07: Matt Forte – RB
4.08: Thomas Rawls – RB
4.09: Brandin Cooks – RB
4.10: Russell Wilson – QB

Man, I really hope Pasha lets me continue to write for fantasyhaus after reading this article, because I really don’t like his team so far (sorry man). Matt Forte is another guy whose value is in PPR leagues. I’m very concerned about Matt Forte given the fact he is 30 and he switched teams. It remains to be seen how well he does, but I’m not holding my breath! This is the round where you could start looking at quarterbacks, and I think the best quarterback was taken in this round. Cam Newton has his best weapon back (Kelvin Benjamin) and has a very high floor for fantasy points due to his running ability. I also think that the steal of the draft so far occurred in this round with LeSean McCoy being taken at 4.04. As long as he plays 16 games, he has the ability to finish as the #1 RB in fantasy football.

Round 5:

5.01: Doug Baldwin – WR
5.02: DeMarco Murray – RB
5.03: Golden Tate – WR
5.04: Greg Olsen – TE
5.05: Mark Ingram – RB
5.06: Eric Decker – WR
5.07: Andrew Luck – QB
5.08: Matt Jones – RB
5.09: Jarvis Landry – WR
5.10: Jonathan Stewart – RB

The only pick I have a problem with in this round is Jarvis Landry. He will catch over 100 passes, maybe get to 1,000 yards, but he won’t score a lot of touchdowns. In two years he has 9. There are receivers is rounds six and seven I would have taken before Landry. Matt Jones is still unproven, so he’s going to be a boom or bust pick in this round.

Round 6:

6.01: Larry Fitzgerald – WR
6.02: Jeremy Maclin – WR
6.03: Jay Ajayi – RB
6.04: Jeremy Hill – RB
6.05: Michael Floyd – WR
6.06: Ben Roethlisberger – QB
6.07: DeVante Parker – WR
6.08: Jeremy Langford – RB
6.09: Ryan Matthews – RB
6.10: Allen Hurns – WR

Round six was all about players named Jeremy! I like Jeremy Maclin again this year. Maclin’s good for about 1,000 yards and 9 touchdowns. Jeremy Hill was the steal in this round. His rushing yards went down last year, but he scored double-digit touchdowns. You want a player who is going to score that many touchdowns, especially in standard scoring. If no one else is brought into Chicago, I like Jeremy Langford this year. He proved himself when Forte was hurt and no one else really stepped up.

Round 7:

7.01: Tyler Eifert – TE
7.02: Latavius Murray – RB
7.03: Travis Kelce – TE
7.04: John Brown – WR
7.05: Ameer Abdullah – RB
7.06: Delanie Walker – TE
7.07: Jordan Matthews – WR
7.08: Dion Lewis – RB
7.09: Emmanuel Sanders – WR
7.10: Frank Gore – RB

If Tyler Eifert is ready at the beginning of the season, getting him in the seventh round is such great value! Eifert is dominant in the red zone, and if he is healthy will put up double-digits in touchdowns again. Pasha got the best Cardinals receiver in my opinion, and got him a round later than the other receivers on that team. Larry Fitzgerald may have had the best numbers last season for the Cardinals, but he did most of his damage when Brown and Floyd were not 100%. Between Brown and Floyd, Brown had more targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns. I also really like Emmanuel Sanders in this spot. He had about 1,200 yards and 6 touchdowns. I think the Broncos offense will have to pass more in 2016, and I think Sanders will be closer to 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns.

Round 8:

8.01: Stephen Gostkowski – K
8.02: Carson Palmer – QB
8.03: Ladarius Green – TE
8.04: Giovani Bernard – RB
8.05: Denver D/ST
8.06: Seattle D/ST
8.07: Tyler Lockett – WR
8.08: Carolina D/ST
8.09: Sterling Shepard – WR
8.10: Arizona D/ST

Wow, what a pathetic round. D/STs should not be taken until the second to last round. I don’t care if you’re drafting what you think is going to be a dominating D/ST, there is zero reason to take one this early. You will likely drop your D/ST after Week 1 and pick one up from the waiver wire. And instead of taking a skill position player with high upside here, you’ve wasted a pick. I also don’t think a kicker should be taken until the last round. Sure, Stephen Gostkowski is great, but kickers are truly a dime a dozen. I really like Tyler Lockett this season, so that is probably the best pick in this round. Lockett finished strong in 2015, and I think he’s earned Russell Wilson’s trust and his numbers will increase significantly. I think it was a reach for Sterling Shepard, who I do like this year, but I think he could have been drafted at least a round later.

Round 9:

9.01: Graham Cano – K
9.02: Marvin Jones – WR
9.03: Connor Barth – K
9.04: Drew Brees – QB
9.05: Blair Walsh – K
9.06: Shayne Graham – K
9.07: Chris Ivory – RB
9.08: Blake Bortles – QB
9.09: Michael Crabtree – WR
9.10: Eli Manning – QB

Pasha made the best pick of the draft in this round by taking Drew Brees. The New Orleans offense is going to put up a lot of points because the defense is still terrible. Drew Brees could very easily throw for 5,000 yards and 50 touchdowns this year. The rest of the QBs were good picks in this round, but come on with all the kickers!

Round 10:

10.01: Los Angeles D/ST
10.02: Tony Romo – QB
10.03: New England D/ST
10.04: Kevin White – WR
10.05: DeSean Jackson – WR
10.06: Tom Brady – QB
10.07: Zach Ertz – TE
10.08: Karlos Williams – RB
10.09: Derrick Henry – RB
10.10: Josh Doctson – WR

The DeMarco Murray owner grabbed Derrick Henry to ensure he had the Titans backfield locked up. I think that it will be a 70/30 split between Murray and Henry, and I believe that Henry will get most of the goal line opportunities, and will score at will when given the opportunity. For Pasha to get Zach Ertz this late is great value. Ertz will likely have a career year, but even if he doesn’t it won’t matter too much because he’s cheap in the 10th round.

Round 11:

11.01: Melvin Gordon – RB
11.02: Andy Dalton – QB
11.03: Steve Smith Sr. – WR
11.04: Donte Moncrief – WR
11.05: Gary Barnidge – TE
11.06: Derek Carr – QB
11.07: Martellus Bennett – TE
11.08: Chris Bosworth – K
11.09: Julius Thomas – TE
11.10: Stefon Diggs – WR

There are two picks I have a problem with: Steve Smith Sr. and Martellus Bennett. I don’t think Smith does anything this year and might not even play. Plus, he’s not even the best receiver on the Ravens. That receiver isn’t picked for another two rounds! The only person who should be drafting Bennett is the Gronk owner, and that person did not draft Gronk. Bennett is not Aaron Hernandez. No matter how bad we want to see two relevant tight ends playing for the Patriots, Bennett is not going to be the guy to fill those shoes.

Round 12:

12.01: Marcus Mariota – QB
12.02: Houston D/ST
12.03: Dorial Green-Beckham – WR
12.04: Antonio Gates – TE
12.05: Vincent Jackson – WR
12.06: Justin Forsett – RB
12.07: Philip Rivers – QB
12.08: Markus Wheaton – WR
12.09: Austin Seferian-Jenkins – TE
12.10: Willie Snead – WR

Pasha didn’t need a second QB when he drafted Drew Brees, so Rivers was a waste of a pick if you ask me. What he should have done is taken Willie Snead, who I believe will be the second receiver for the Saints this year and will easily score 8-10 touchdowns.

Round 13:

13.01: Jameis Winston – QB
13.02: Buffalo D/ST
13.03: Tyrod Taylor – QB
13.04: Charles Sims – RB
13.05: Corey Coleman – WR
13.06: Isaiah Crowell – RB
13.07: Kamar Aiken – WR
13.08: Jimmy Graham – TE
13.09: Steven Hauschka – K
13.10: TJ Yeldon – RB

Kamar Aiken going in the 13th round, two rounds after Steve Smith Sr., is a crime! He became the go-to guy in Baltimore when Smith was injured and even when Flacco wasn’t heavily targeting him he was still making plays. Aiken will take a huge leap forward this year, and having him in the 13th round is a steal!

Round 14:

14.01: Rashad Jennings – RB
14.02: Coby Fleener – TE
14.03: Matt Ryan – QB
14.04: Philadelphia D/ST
14.05: Dwayne Allen – TE
14.06: Laquon Treadwell – WR
14.07: New York Jets D/ST
14.08: Jason Witten – TE
14.09: Nick Folk – K
14.10: Eric Ebron – TE

Eric Ebron in the 14th is great value. With Calvin Johnson gone, I expect Ebron to get the bulk of the red zone looks. I think he will easily score 10 touchdowns this year.

Round 15:

15.01: Kansas City D/ST
15.02: Matthew Stafford – QB
15.03: Pittsburgh D/ST
15.04: Chandler Catanzaro – K
15.05: Justin Tucker – K
15.06: Josh Brown – K
15.07: Cairo Santos – K
15.08: Travis Benjamin – WR
15.09: Minnesota D/ST
15.10: Tavon Austin – WR

Tavon Austin is a player that I need to do more research on to determine how I really feel about him. My gut tells me that I like him this season, as he is by far the best wide receiver for the Rams, but that doesn’t mean much.

There you have it folks, 15 rounds of a standard scoring draft. Hopefully you were able to gain some insight on good and bad moves to prepare you for your 2016 draft!